Eureka CA Headed for Record Cold - Ice Age?

This is an update to my earlier post on Eureka, California, experiencing a rapid cooling such that an Ice Age (locally) is imminent. Looks like I was wrong. They aren't supposed to have a hard freeze until 2030, or thereabouts. Yet the National Weather Service has issued the alert for Eureka for tonight, calling for a hard freeze in the 20's F. That's approximately 20 years ahead of schedule.

The text of the NWS announcement follows:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA

 330 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011  

...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...  

.CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA 

WILL BRING RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.  

CAZ001-002-271230- /O.NEW.KEKA.HZ.W.0003.110227T0800Z-110227T1800Z/ 

REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST- 330 PM PST SAT FEB 26 2011  

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY...  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...

WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY.  

* EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO MID TO UPPER 20S BEFORE   

SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

It would be prudent for the local government to assess their preparedness for prolonged periods of ice and snow. Do they have on hand sufficient snow plows? Large dump trucks with appropriate tires to spread "grit" to improve motorists' traction? Rock salt supplies and warehouses in which to store it? (Rock salt does not do well stored outdoors where rain can fall on it...) Ice breakers in the harbor?

Given the strict environmental requirements of California law, Eureka should probably (this is NOT legal advice) start rather soon on the environmental impact studies related to removing quantities of ice and snow in an acceptable manner. Perhaps they could confer with officials of another heavily-regulated-city-by-the-frozen-bay, Boston, on this matter.

Looks like sales of warm clothing will be on the upswing in Eureka. Bundle up. I suspect that an Ice Age is not a fun time. Eureka could be the canary in the coal mine on all this "CO2-induced, man-made global warming."

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.

Marina del Rey, California

(where it will also be rather cold tonight...below 40 degrees F...that's near the record for us, too)

Tulane Law School and Peak Oil

I have the pleasure of being invited to speak at Tulane Law School's Summit on Environmental Law and Policy, held on April 1st and 2nd of 2011 at the law school in New Orleans, Louisiana. I am very much looking forward to this prestigious event. (link here)

My speech will be as one of three panelists on the topic of Peak Oil, to be held April 2 at 11:45 a.m.. The session is titled, Are We There Yet? The Peak Oil Question. I am on record as stating that Peak Oil is not only not here yet, it will not occur. The other two panelists will, I suspect, take the opposing view.

This is shaping up to be a very interesting time to be discussing Peak Oil, and the energy policy implications of a Peak Oil event. I refer to the recent events in the Middle East, where political systems are in a state of change. The price of oil worldwide has increased as a result, with gasoline prices here in Marina del Rey jumping 40 cents per gallon in just two weeks.

I will add more to this post as time allows. If you are in New Orleans that weekend, this should be a most fascinating summit.

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.

Marina del Rey, California

Solar Insanity in California

Today, SCE (Southern California Edison, one of the big three electric utilities in California) switched on a just-finished 5 MW solar PV power plant near Porterville, California - about 50 miles north of Bakersfield in the Central Valley. This act was accompanied by much press, such as at this link, and this link. As I've written elsewhere, California has gone nuts. This is but another example of the insanity that rules here these days.

The power plant is reported to have cost $18 million, and will produce 5 MW of power. Presumably that is the peak power, when the sun is actually out and not obscured by dust or clouds, or rain. They don't get much snow in Porterville. [Update 2-25-2011, correction, they are to receive a rain / snow mix today and tomorrow. It's a big, cold storm. end update RES] The annual average power output is far less than 5 MW, though, much more likely it is around 25 percent of the peak rating, or 1.25 MW annual average.

Why this is nuts has to do with the cost-to-power ratio. At $18 million installed cost, the plant's owners must charge the purchasers 13 cents per kWh just to pay off the capital cost. That is, they would if this plant was built with private money, and no government subsidies. The 13 cents per kWh is based on financing 100 percent of the $18 million for 20 years at 5 percent compound interest. If one figures in the additional cost of maintenance, labor, supplies, and other ongoing costs to run a power plant, plus transmission costs, the sales price would increase to approximately 15 cents per kWh.

But, there are substantial subsidies for a solar-powered plant, and the plant was built. SCE stated they have $875 million to spend on such power plants, that will produce a total of 250 MW. The cost-to-power ratio is approximately the same, at $3500 per kW installed.

It must be understood that such a solar power plant does nothing to reduce the required investment in reliable, gas-fired power plants in California. There are many times when the solar power plant will not produce power so the power must be provided by a natural gas-fired plant.