Friday, January 22, 2010

Eureka (CA) Headed for Ice Age in 67 Years

That is correct,the heading above is not a typo. Eureka, California, a beautiful small town on California's north coast, is rapidly headed for an ice age. Within the next 67 years, Eureka will have an average annual temperature of zero deg C (32 deg F), if the trend from the past 18 years (1992 to 2010) continues. The cooling trend is 15.6 deg C per century. The present annual average temperature is only 10 deg C, therefore it will require only two-thirds of a century, or 67 years, to reach zero.

Extrapolating a recent temperature trend is exactly what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did and is still doing in their alarmist tactics to persuade the world's governments to reduce CO2 emissions, as the IPCC maintains that CO2 and other greenhouse gases will create horrific conditions for all mankind. What I have done above is using their tactics, to illustrate the horror (a local ice age) for one beautiful small town in America, Eureka, California. See below for the temperature record that supports the conclusion that Eureka is headed for an ice age in 67 years.

The graph of monthly average temperatures (see Figure 1 below) dates to 1886, and is taken from the Climatic Research Unit of the Hadley Research Center in England. Although their data anomalies for worldwide average temperature are somewhat suspect after the Climategate scandal, it is possible that the manipulations and falsifications occurred during the data averaging among all locations, rather than at the individual city level. In any event, the data shown below is taken as-is from the files posted by Hadley on the internet. The Eureka file is 725940, located in the folder labeled "72."

Figure 1
(click on image for larger view in new window)

As was the case with other small towns' temperature history, including Abilene, Texas, Eureka shows a distinct warming trend from 1910 to 1940 of 0.034 deg C per year (3.4 deg C per century), then a slight cooling from 1940 to 1970 of -0.013 deg C per year (-1.3 deg C per century). But, Eureka then begins an interesting temperature odyssey. The temperatures increase from 1975 until about 1992, then begin a steep decline. The overall trend from 1975 to 2009 is -0.036 deg C per year (-3.6 deg C per century). However, the temperature trend from 1992 to 2010 is —0.156 deg C per year ( a decline of 15.6 deg C per century).

The temperature decline from 1975 to 2010 is approximately the same as for San Diego, California, yet the inland city of Fresno, California shows no such decline.

As the IPCC and other climate alarmists state repeatedly, CO2 in the atmosphere is causing the climate to warm rapidly. Apparently, the CO2 around Eureka did not get the word. Perhaps there is no CO2 in Eureka? Well, no, that is not likely, as there are huge stands of very large trees in that area; the trees are giant redwoods known as Coast Redwoods. Such trees require vast amounts of CO2 to grow.

Once again, it is clear that whatever causes the earth's climate to warm or cool, that something is not CO2. Physics does not permit arbitrary application of a physical principle such that it works in one location but not in another. Clearly, Eureka is cooling and cooling quite rapidly. Meanwhile, CO2 in the atmosphere continues to climb.

Eurekans should take heed of their recent temperature trend, and take appropriate measures to adapt to the looming ice age. Sixty-seven years is not a long time, when one has a world-class harbor (Humbolt Bay), a port, and giant redwood trees to preserve and protect.

NOTE: for those unfamiliar with my writings, I do not for a moment believe that Eureka is headed for an ice age. I know without any doubt that such temperature trends are temporary, and Eureka will soon bounce back into their normal temperature range. The above was written deliberately with the same alarmist tone that the IPCC uses and used in their frantic effort to stop fossil fuel use around the world. I write frequently on the topic of repealing California's global warming law known as AB 32. That law was passed with the expectation that California was heating up too much and too rapidly due to excess CO2 in the atmosphere. Apparently, Eureka did not get the word on that, either.

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California


Tony said...

Mr. Sowell--please help us figure out whether Eureka's climate is cooling or warming. We have to decide whether to promote ourselves as a coastal skiing destination or a California beach town. Having lived here for 14 years, feels like it always has, maybe less fog than we used to get. But I understand that I am not qualified to look out the window and disagree with the experts.

Roger Sowell said...

Tony, the data from hadCRUT3 shows a very slight warming trend over more than a century, but a dramatic cooling recently as I described. I think it would be fun to ski in and around the redwoods.

If you have temperature records for Eureka that show hadCRUT3 is wrong, could you please add those data in a comment? I don't believe the hadCRUT3 data is perfect, but have no other data at this time.

The cooling trend is about 1.5 deg C per decade, so roughly 2 degrees C for the 14 year period you lived there. That is probably not enough to notice, unless the colder winters are noticeable. Would you say the winters are any colder now than 14 years ago?