A Week That Was July 2016

What a week.  So much happening, and much of it already impacting, or will impact, topics that are of interest to me.  In no particular order, then, 

o  Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in the UK is having another look for viability by the new government under Theresa May; seems the cost to construct is a bit too high and subsidies also too high; see link

o  California survived a second heat wave, with a second FlexAlert issued, even though the natural gas shortage is still in effect - Aliso Canyon gas storage system is not yet fixed; 

o  Meanwhile, California's solar power production broke all-time records at more than 8,000 MW; a very good thing to have when the grid is struggling to send power to the people; even more solar power is under construction in California; see figure at right from CAISO website showing 8,132 MW produced on 26 July 2016;

o  Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are plunging fast and are already in the La Niña condition (the El Neutral didn't last long, as the ocean switched from hot El Niño to cool La Niña very quickly); 

o  Sunspots disappeared completely a few days ago, for approximately 7 or 8 days; this is rather early in the sunspot cycle for a week or more of spotless days to occur; see link to Spaceweather.com and refer to left column of that site. As of today, 30 July 2016, the sun has had 18 spotless days in 2016. 

o  A serious doubt for the future of manned space exploration re-surfaced this past week, with evidence and a report that lunar astronauts suffer (and some have died) from much higher incidence of cardio vascular disease; almost none of the non-flying astronauts, nor the low-earth orbit astronauts have this; the explanation is exposure to intense deep-space radiation and ionizing high-energy particles (galactic cosmic rays) by those astronauts that flew past the Earth's Van Allen Belts and went to the moon.   This has deep implications for the proposed moon-orbiting manned space station, any manned Mars missions, and especially a Mars colony.   The long-term orbiting astronauts on the International Space Station provide valuable data on some medical aspects of space life, but that is all within the protective shield of the Van Allen Belts.  see link to Nature article on deep-space radiation effects on astronauts, "Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Possible Deep Space Radiation Effects on the Vascular Endothelium"


o  As always, it is amusing to read the derogatory comments on other blogs, and find irrefutable evidence that the commenters are wrong; in this case, EIA published a nice map of the US' regional electrical grids that show multiple states tied together to share electricity; some idiot challenged a piece I wrote by his statement that a good utility never purchases power from outside its own geographic area.    Ronald Reagan's quote remains so true: "It's not that our ... friends don't know anything, but that so much of what they know just isn't so." see link to EIA article on US grids, and graphic nearby.   

o  In US politics, we have the unusual fact of a billionaire businessman outsider, Donald Trump, as the official Republican Party presidential nominee, and a rich, old, scandal-plagued, white female, Hillary Clinton, as the official Democrat Party presidential nominee.   Their respective views on climate change, energy policy, immigration, foreign affairs, and national security could not be more different.  

o  In the oil markets, world crude oil price is low and headed lower as the summer driving season ends; I tend to scoff at most so-called experts that tell us what crude oil price will be because they are almost without exception very wrong.  The fact is that oil production world-wide is much greater than oil demand, with recent reports showing huge inventory increases world-wide to support oil production rates.  Economic malaise and improved technology reduce oil demand, which will cause oil prices to plummet.   Just yesterday, pundits predicted prices of $30 per barrel after this summer ends.   I will be surprised if oil does not fall to $25 or even lower.  

 I hope to have time to write a full article with links to sources and explore each of these in more detail. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Mars Colony - Bad Idea

Subtitle: A One-Way Death Voyage

The idea of sending men (and presumably, women) to Mars, and having them establish a base in which to live has long been discussed. NASA has a webpage on the subject. (see link)  This article, and subsequent articles, discusses the Mars colonization issue from the perspective of an experienced process engineer.   The conclusion is grim: A Mars colony has very little hope of success due to very difficult conditions on Mars, the frailty of humans, and inevitable decay and malfunction of processes.   Evidence is presented from a variety of sources, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and NASA's own studies.  

credit: NASA website

To begin with the basics: humans require several things for life.  These things include (but are not limited to) breathable air, drinkable water, palatable and nourishing food, heat or cooling to maintain the body within a narrow comfort range, medical care, sanitation, protection from intense radiation, and protection from deadly meteors that fall from the sky.  For a colony to be self-sustaining, basic biology dictates that a sufficient number of unrelated people be included to produce healthy children.  

The conditions on Mars are now fairly well-known: the atmosphere is unbreathable, even corrosive; water exists but requires great effort to make clean enough for drinking, cooking, and bathing; ambient temperatures range from a few moments of 70 degrees F in daytime down to minus 200 F at night; soil is likely poisonous to plant life; radiation at the surface is deadly, plus the radiation penetrates as much as 3 feet into the surface; and the atmosphere is too thin to effectively burn up meteors.   As if those conditions were not sufficient, the long journey from Earth to Mars requires prospective colonists to endure strong, inter-planetary radiation.    

Ideas for colonies generally attempt to overcome these obstacles.   There is typically some energy source to provide electricity that is then used for air production, heating, lighting, and powering various equipment.   The energy source typically is stated as solar photo-voltaic, or PV.  What is not stated is the very weak solar energy at Mars' distance from the sun, nor the difficulty create by tremendous dust clouds that obscure the sun.   How much the PV system will be degraded by wind-blown dust is not mentioned much, if at all.   Storing the limited PV-provided electricity for use at night and during dust storms is a major issue.   

Living quarters must be enclosed to keep out the thin Martian atmosphere, and retain the human-tolerant air inside.   The pressure inside is much greater than that outside, so any leaks or punctures will send precious air out into the atmosphere.  That air must be replaced.  Living quarters must also provide shielding from deadly radiation from space, and from meteors of any size that smash into the surface.   Some proposals call for cave-like living quarters located under the surface.  

One recent MIT study (see link) showed the plans for growing plants would result in a poisonous air composition within a short time due to an imbalance of oxygen and carbon dioxide, CO2. 

It is assumed by colony proponents that seeds will survive and be viable after the long journey from Earth, even after being exposed to deep-space radiation.  Studies on Earth show that seeds are detrimentally affected by ionizing radiation. 

One of the greatest problems, though, is the impact on mechanical systems and especially their lubricants, from fine dust found on Mars.  It is as yet unknown how long a system would operate before the grit in the dust causes the mechanical systems to fail.   It may be that filtration or cyclonic systems can be designed and implemented to reduce dust-related failures.  

The lack of spare parts, and additional food to sustain the colonists are issues to be considered.   It is likely that unmanned, resupply ships must be sent on a regular basis to the colony.  Given the long transit time, it will be difficult to obtain needed parts and supplies on a timely basis.  This is not like contacting an internet store and having the items appear at your doorstep the next day.   Crop failures, and critical equipment malfunctions, could and probably will cause early death for the colonists. 

Finally, for this article, the basics of biology dictate that Mars colonists should not have children.  A small gene pool would result in birth defects in subsequent generations.   Proponents might respond that that problem can be overcome with sperm banks and ova, however the technology to successfully perform artificial insemination may be far beyond that found in a Mars colony. 

UPDATE 1 - 5/31/2015.  

Regarding spare parts, some have mentioned the 3-D printers would solve that problem. That may actually be true, in a very limited set of circumstances.  Perhaps a plastic o-ring seal can be made to replace one that failed.  However, it is questionable (meaning I seriously doubt this one) that an item made of stainless steel, shaped in a forge with high heat and pounded with heavy hammers, then heat treated, and finally ground and polished to close tolerances will exit from a 3-D printer.  The same issues exist for other metals: copper wiring, aluminum castings, even bolts with their strength requirements and threads cut into their end.  

The biology issue was mentioned to me, and the proposed solution is simply to send more colonists until the gene pool is sufficiently great.   One can only wonder what the new colonists will eat, and what air will they have to breathe, and water to drink.   Plus, who will be spared from the ongoing work to devote time to caring for infants, then toddlers, then see to their education until they can be productive members of the colony.  Children are great (I have two), however in a Mars colony environment that is likely on the verge of starvation or suffocation each and every day, children may be a significant contributor to extinction. 

For more on the negative side, NASA recently noted unexpected corrosion on the rover's wheels.  This is attributed to acidic vapor rising from the surface as the sunlight warms the Martian soil.  -- end update. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq. 
Marina del Rey, California

Copyright (c) 2015 by Roger Sowell