California Renewables Averting Blackouts - Every Ten Days

Subtitle: Renewables Add 13,000 MW to the Grid - How Many Deaths Averted?

How much good are renewable sources of electricity doing in California?  This summer, they are doing a tremendous job in preventing a crisis on the electrical grid, even averting blackouts.   A recent article from the San Diego Union-Tribune, see link and excerpts below, shows the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility has approximately 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in storage.   An earlier post on SLB, see link copied and cross-posted at WUWT, shows the combined output of California renewable energy sources are avoiding

Figure 1
Temperatures for Los Angeles, California for 2015 measured at USC Campus near downtown
Heavy black line indicates 95 degrees F
Red oval indicates heat wave events of 95 degrees or greater

approximately 1.3 bcf natural gas burned in the state's power plants.  Given the uncertainties in the data ("some 15 billion..gas in the ground," renewable output varies from 150,000 to 210,000 MWh daily, and the heat rate of the gas-fired power plants), one can say that the renewables are keeping Aliso Canyon from depletion after 10 days of production.  

From the SDUT article:

"As Southern California's energy network braces to keep from buckling during what is expected to be a hotter than normal summer, grid operators may turn to back-up natural gas supplies from an unexpected place: Aliso Canyon.

"The storage facility, site of a massive leak that forced thousands to evacuate their homes in the Porter Ranch neighborhood of Los Angeles, may be restricted from injecting gas until all of its 114 wells have been pronounced safe, but Aliso Canyon still has some 15 billion cubic feet of natural gas left in the ground.

"And Bret Lane, the chief operating officer at Southern California Gas, the utility responsible for Aliso Canyon, told the Union-Tribune Friday that if a sweltering summer leads to a dire situation in which natural gas suppliers run short, the storage facility can be tapped.

"If the conditions are met, it's available and would be used," Lane said.

"Lane emphasized that natural gas would only be withdrawn from Aliso Canyon — not injected — under a protocol that has already been established in conjunction with entities such as the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the California Public Utilities Commission, the California Energy Commission and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power."  -- end quote 

A substantial benefit from the renewable energy providers in California is averting blackouts.  The state regulatory agencies are keenly aware of the need to prevent blackouts and go to great lengths to decrease demand, and increase generation capability.   The most effective demand decrease strategy appears to be requesting cooperation from consumers to postpone their electricity use during periods of peak use.   That is relatively easy to do, something as simple as not running major appliances until after 9 p.m.  

Increasing generation capability includes ordering generating plant operators to not perform non-critical maintenance. 

The un-controllable events are a concern, things like wildfire that impacts critical transmission lines, or blazes through a wind power farm.   The huge wildfire near Tehachapi, California that is burning at this time (June 26, 2016) could conceivable extend into the wind farm just a few miles south of the blaze.   The impact of fire on electricity transmission assets is not hypothetical, as the exact thing happened recently near San Diego. 

The impact of a blackout during a heat-wave can be serious, indeed deadly for people.   Living in a house in hot areas, without electricity for air-conditioning or even a fan to circulate air, can be deadly.   Some people, are so anti-renewable energy that they would rather shut down the renewable energy plants.   This is inconceivable to me, but perhaps the health, comfort, and even the lives of millions of people are not so important to the anti-renewables crowd.  

One of the realities of life is coping with the circumstances of that day, and that moment.  The reality in Southern California today, this week and this summer, is that heat waves are likely. (see Fig. 1 above) The electrical grid is powered for the most part by natural gas-fired power plants.  One of the nuclear power plants, SONGS, was shut down permanently more than 4 years ago (January, 2012) see link due to horrible mis-management.  Hydroelectric power is also limited. There is limited capacity to import power from neighboring states.  Finally, the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage system on which the entire system relies is not up to its usual capabilities due to a major leak and ongoing efforts to ensure safe operation in the future. 

Heat waves, as temperatures reach or exceed 90-95 degrees F, are fairly common in Southern California.  One example is shown in Figure 1 above, for calendar year 2015.  Similar charts are available for several years see link.   In 2015, there were 5 events that exceeded 95 degrees, and 8 events that exceeded 90 degrees.   Perhaps 2015 was impacted by the heat from an El Niño year, however the year 2012 had 12 events totalling 30 days that exceeded 90 degrees F.  

The bad news is that there is not enough natural gas available for several heat waves.  The good news is that renewable power plants are already installed and sending electricity into the grid at the rate of approximately 180,000-200,000 MWh each day, and 13,000 MW at peak output.  Even at 6 pm when load tends to peak, and sunshine is waning, the renewables combine to produce approximately 10,000 MW (as reported by CAISO in the past week).  Without the renewable power plants, the reserves in Aliso Canyon would be depleted in approximately 10 days.    The number of human health effects, even deaths, avoided by not having blackouts is unknown, but saving even one life is certainly worth doing. 



Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Los Angeles Gas Well Leaking - Drilling To Fix It

Subtitle:  Vilified Precision Directional Drilling To The Rescue

(Updated, see end of article. ) 

Approximately 12 weeks ago, a storage well for natural gas began to leak just on the outskirts of Los Angeles, California.   The odor is intense in the nearby communities and many residents have been moved, relocated.   Schools have been closed, and the affected students are being sent to nearby schools.   

There have been dozens of articles written on this, and official information exists on various websites such as the South Coast AQMD (see link).   The well is in some danger of blowing out and spewing a great quantity of odorized natural gas over the western portion of Los Angeles.  

The AQMD site states: 

"Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) operates a natural gas underground storage facility (Aliso Canyon Storage Facility) at 12801 Tampa Avenue in Northridge, CA 91326. Aliso Canyon Facility’s underground storage reservoir has the capacity to store over 80 billion cubic feet of natural gas.  SoCalGas operates about 115 injection/withdrawal wells at this location. SoCalGas injects natural gas into the underground reservoir at this facility when the demand for natural gas is low and withdraws it when the demand for natural gas is high.   

On October 23, 2015 SoCalGas discovered that a well used to inject and withdraw natural gas from the underground storage reservoir at their Aliso Canyon facility (known as Well SS-25) was leaking. Initially, it was expected that the gas leak would last no longer than several days or weeks, at the most.  However, despite several attempts by SoCalGas to stop the leak, natural gas is continuing to leak from the underground reservoir through Well SS-25 and its surroundings."   (note: Sempra Energy is the parent company of Southern California Gas Company.)

The facts, to the best of my knowledge, are that the well was drilled in the 1960s as an oil well.  Once the oil ran out, and many years later, the well was one of dozens of similar wells that were converted to accept pressurized, odorized natural gas as a means of storing the gas during low-demand periods.  When the demand for gas increases, the gas company withdraws the gas from the storage wells and sends the gas via pipelines to customers.   Such gas storage and withdrawal facilities exist across the US.   This one at Aliso Canyon is the largest in Southern California.   

When this well began to leak, SoCalGas attempted several times to stop the leak by the usual and customary methods, primarily pumping a thick fluid known as "mud" into the well.   However, this well did not respond and the leak increased.   The quantity of gas and its odorizing compound created irritation and discomfort to the residents in the nearby community of Porter Ranch.   

The situation attracted the attention of several state agencies and the Governor of California, who declared via proclamation "that a state of emergency exists in Los Angeles County due to this natural gas leak."  see link  

Since efforts to plug the well via mud injection failed, SoCalGas is drilling two relief wells to meet the leaking well at a prescribed depth.   The relief wells take time to drill and reach the target.  If successful, the relief wells will reduce the pressure in the leaking well and allow the leak to be plugged.   see link to Department of Conservation's Fact Sheet on the well. 

What is important to note is that the relief wells being drilled are using precision directional drilling (PDD), the same technique that is used all over the country and world-wide to economically drill and produce oil and natural gas from formations, including shale gas.    PDD is used along with hydraulic fracturing to produce much more oil and gas than was possible years ago.    It is commonly stated by the media that fracking is a new technology that causes all sorts of issues, including earthquakes and contaminated water.   Both accusations are false.   

The new technology, in fact, is not fracturing.   The new technology is the gradual improvement in directional drilling, until today it can be called precision directional drilling.   One superb example of PDD is the ExxonMobil oil field offshore of Russia's Sakhalin Island.  That oil field is several miles offshore, and thousands of feet below sea level.   The drilling rig is on the island near the mainland.   Drilling more than 6 miles horizontally, and 8,500 feet down, the PDD reached the oil formation that is only 490 feet thick.   As one executive described it, this is similar to standing at one end of a basketball gymnasium, then pushing a long pipe cleaner through clay and hitting a golf ball at the far end of the gymnasium.    In short, PDD works.   

At Aliso Canyon, the PDD must reach a depth of approximately something greater than 500 feet, but it must intersect with the existing well that is only a few inches across at that depth.   If the leaking well is 4 inches diameter at that depth, or perhaps 6 inches, the precision of the PDD must be very, very good.   The well is approximately the diameter of a softball, but the distance may be as much as one and one-half miles.    

It is for this reason that the gas company has not offered any guarantees that the relief wells will work.  However, there are good reasons to think that they will, eventually, reach the distressed well.   The current schedule is for the wells to intersect in mid to late-February and for the leak to be stopped in early to mid-March.  

It is ironic that the very same technology that many complain about, and condemn as causing so much trouble, is what will be used to rescue an old and leaky well that is approximately 50 years old.    It is also ironic that PDD is what has allowed so much natural gas to be drilled and produced, and created a surplus of supply so the price of natural gas has declined to slightly less than one-third the peak price of a few years ago ($14 then, and $4 now, approximately).   The low natural gas price leads to lower electricity prices, since much of California's electricity is produced by clean-burning natural gas.   In addition, the US no longer imports LNG, instead, LNG is now produced for export to other countries.   PDD is a modern miracle of applied technology.  

As the situation at Aliso Canyon develops, there will likely be updates to this post.  

Update 1 - 1/23/2016:  SoCalGas states that they expect the well to be shut in by the end of February.    Well, we shall see.   Drilling such relief wells does not always go as planned.  -- end update 1. 

Update 2 - 2/13/2016:  SoCalGas states they have temporarily shut in the well, with the gas flow stopped.   The relief well was successful, hitting the leaking well with precision directional drilling.   Next, the leaking well will be permanently capped by injection of a special concrete mixture that will harden and seal the well.   However, the situation is not over, not by any means. Lawsuits will drag out for years.  Regulators are discussing tighter rules.  State agencies are evaluating the Aliso Canyon storage facility for suitability for long-term use, and the implications that has for energy security (electricity shortages and blackouts).    --   

see link to "Implications of Closing Aliso Canyon"
see link to "Natural Methane Seeps are Very Common" 
see link to "California: As Gas Leaks, Pressure for Regulation Builds"----end update 2.  

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

California Setting Records with Renewables - 2016

Subtitle:  Renewables Saving The Grid by Reducing Natural Gas Demand

From CAISO, record-setting renewable production

A lot of good is being done by renewable energy power plants in California, especially with the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility at very limited capacity due to an earlier leak.  Renewable power plants are preventing the grid from experiencing blackouts. 

 The graphic at right, from California Independent System Operator, CAISO, shows renewable power production for what appears to be the record-setting date thus far, June 14, 2016.   Total renewable energy was 211,546 MWh.  Yesterday, June 22 was not far behind with 208,949 MWh.   Today, June 23's results are shown below, not quite a record but still a bit more than 200,000 MWh from renewables.  see link to CAISO archives on renewable output. 

Renewables on June 14 provided an average of 33 percent of the 24-hour total system demand.  On an hourly basis, renewables provided 46 percent of the load at 3 p.m. that day.   The load on the grid peaked at approximately 39,500 MW just before 6 p.m.   Solar production peaked at approximately 7,400 MW.  

These results are higher than the peak production in 2015, which was 189,000 MWh in a 24 hour period.   As could be expected, peak production occurs when solar power is at or near the Summer Solstice, June 20th typically, but also when wind production is greatest.   Wind production was at a maximum thus far at 92,000 to 93,000 MWh in the first half of 2016.  On June 14th wind provided 92,250 MWh.  Typically in California, wind production peaks in June or July then decreases for the remaining months (source, EIA). 

Renewables for June 23, 2016
showing Solar PV exceeds 7,000 MW
and total Renewables exceeds 200,000 MWh

The renewable energy produced saves the state from burning natural gas in the gas-fired power plants, which is a very good thing as this summer's loads must be met without the full production of stored gas from Aliso Canyon.   How much gas is not  burned is somewhat difficult to estimate because one must know which gas-fired power plants are not being run and their respective heat rates.  Also, as some gas-fired plants are no doubt operated at a slightly reduced rate, one must know the heat rate for each power plant at the reduced output.   Reduced output from selected plants is advisable to allow rapid power increase to compensate for variations in the renewable production due to clouds, and changes in wind speed. 

However, an estimate of the natural gas not burned can be made by taking the total renewable output from wind and solar, 167,950 MWh on June 14 (per the table at the top of the article), and using an average of 45 percent thermal efficiency for the power plants not being run.  On that basis, approximately 1.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas was not burned on that day.   Per California Energy Commission documents, that is nearly the same gas withdrawal rate at Aliso Canyon when it is at full operation (1.9 billion cubic feet maximum withdrawal).  See Table 1 in "Aliso Canyon Action Plan to Preserve Gas and Electric Reliability for the Los Angeles Basin,"  see link

The state's ability to produce renewable power has changed dramatically since the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) was taken off-line suddenly in 2012.  As

shown in the figure and California Energy Commission's page (see link), solar PV capacity grew from 214 MW at the end of 2011 to 5,498 MW at the end of 2015.  More capacity has been added so that, as above, solar PV now can produce approximately 7,000 MW.   Solar thermal recently has exceeded 700 MW peak.   

It is especially ironic that renewables, once derided as destabilizing a grid, are now riding to the rescue and helping to prevent blackouts on the California electric grid during summer heat waves.   One can only imagine the rolling blackouts and uproar with Aliso Canyon gas storage effectively out of commission, SONGS nuclear generating shut down, and if no renewable power plants had been installed over the past 5 years. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California
copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Implications of Closing Aliso Canyon Gas Storage in California

Subtitle:  Gas Storage Critical to Averting Electricity Shortages

A few days ago (Feb 1st), three California regulatory agencies sent a joint letter to Governor Brown, stating their concern over electricity availability in Southern California this summer, and for continued natural gas supplies for the remainder of the winter.   This concern is certainly valid if the gas injections, storage, and withdrawals at Aliso Canyon are not allowed to resume.   The letter is shown below in its entirety.  The three agencies are California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, and California Independent System Operator, CEC, CPUC, and CAISO, respectively.  CAISO operates the major electricity grid in California.  

For context, there are calls from many sides to shut down the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility because one well is leaking gas into the air.  The gas leak stinks, to put it bluntly, because the gas is already odorized with the sulfur compound that smells like rotten eggs.  Thousands of local residents have been temporarily relocated at gas company expense to escape the stink and related health issues.   There are public meetings of various types to discuss the many aspects of the leak, when it will stop, and what different parties can or should do.  see link to an earlier SLB article on the gas leak. 

From the big picture perspective, California uses natural gas for a substantial part of its basic energy needs.  Gas is used for power generation and for home and commercial space heating.  Having a generally mild climate with some hot summer weather, the demand for gas peaks in the summer, not winter.   The local gas production, plus gas imported via pipelines are not sufficient to meet the peak demand.   Therefore, quantities of natural gas are stored during slack demand, and withdrawn from storage in peak demand.  This is a common practice across the US.   One of the favored storage means is abandoned oil or gas wells.  Aliso Canyon has the abandoned oil wells as the storage means.

The three agencies are responsible for ensuring that California has safe, reliable, and cost-effective utilities - both natural gas and electricity.  An unplanned shortage sometimes occurs, as is mentioned in their letter regarding the sudden shut down of the nuclear power plant in 2012 that is located at San Onofre, and known as SONGS for San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station.   Today, the issue is natural gas and the electricity that gas produces.  

A few years ago, an artificial shortage of natural gas was created in the El Paso Natural Gas Company fiasco, and California experienced electrical shortages, rolling blackouts, and outrageously high electricity prices.   Part of that fiasco was due to the untimely shutdown of a natural gas pipeline that brings natural gas to California from Texas. ( see link to a copy of the settlement agreement between El Paso Corp and various parties.  This describes some, but not all, of the activities that created the electricity shortage.)

In short, a looming electricity shortage in California is a big issue.  There is always suspicion that someone is manipulating the market to obtain windfall profits.   The El Paso case from above alleged the gas pipeline was shut down, or partially shut down so that gas shipments did not occur.  Ostensibly, the shut down was for needed repairs.  The FERC, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission got involved, and sternly questioned the timing of the repairs.  

The analogous situation today might be, and I emphasize this is only a possibility, that a gas shortage occurs, electrical power shortages result in the summer, and the suspicious parties bring lawsuits.  For one thing, a lawsuit can bring facts to light via discovery.  

However, if the three state agencies CEC, CPUC, and CAISO can resolve the issue before any critical shortages occur, there would be no need for the kind of litigation that the El Paso fiasco created.  

The electricity demand in California has not increased as the climate change alarmists warned, with ever-increasing hot summers due to man-made global warming.   Indeed, the peak demand for electricity (see table below) has been remarkably constant between 45,000 MW and 47,000 MW for the past 8 years.  The claim of "hottest year ever" must be the result of other places getting warmer; California certainly is not.  These peak demands are flat, even though the population is growing as always (25 percent over the past 8 years).  

YR    MW     Date   Time
2008 46,897 June 20 16:21
2009 46,042 September 3 16:17
2010 47,350 August 25 16:20
2011 45,545 September 7 16:30
2012 46,846 August 13 15:53
2013 45,097 June 28 16:54
2014 45,089 September 15 16:53
2015 46,519 September 10 15:38

UPDATE 1:  The options the agencies may be considering include the following, and possibly others: 
1) repair and restore Aliso Canyon storage facility
2) increase storage capacity at other locations
3) import more natural gas when needed
4) produce more natural gas within state as needed
5) reduce the demand for natural gas during peak periods, i.e. summer hot days
6) find a replacement or substitute for natural gas
7) reduce the demand for electricity during peak periods

Each of the above options has ramifications.  
1) Repair and restoration of the Aliso Canyon storage facility is viable only if the leaking well is not a common occurrence.  However, if the oil formation underground has deteriorated, and other wells are likely to also leak, then repairs may be futile.  

2) Increasing the storage capacity at other locations may be possible given enough time, but must be studied carefully.  At least one other storage location is not far away at Playa del Rey near Santa Monica.  

3) Import more natural gas when needed may not be possible within the time available, that is, the hot summer when demand peaks in August and September.   Importing natural gas requires gas pipelines from other states, or an LNG import terminal.  Both are expensive, time-consuming, and have long environmental evaluations.  

4) Produce more natural gas within state as needed also requires more time.  It may be possible to obtain emergency drilling permits and drill now to bring in wells in the next few months.   Much is needed to accomplish this, including cleaning the raw natural gas to remove impurities.  

5) Reducing the demand for natural gas during peak periods, i.e. summer hot days, where the primary focus is gas-fired power plants.  There are not many ways to accomplish this, as the hydroelectric capability is low due to an extended drought, and solar power plants with adequate storage are not yet built in great number.   Wind energy without adequate storage is not sufficiently reliable. 

6) Finding  a replacement or substitute for natural gas has potential, but not in the short time-frame required.  Producing renewable forms of methane also is not a large-volume activity, such as methane from farm waste, and landfills.  One long-term solution is the conversion of human waste to synthetic methane, the patented process of Dr. Chan Park of University of California at Riverside.  Dr. Park's process produces pipeline-quality methane from the sludge from waste treatment plants, but it is not yet in commercial production.  see link to SLB coverage of this fascinating chemical engineering research. 

7) Reducing the demand for electricity during peak periods is last on the list, and will likely be the decision if all of the above fail.   California already has a program in place to encourage consumers to reduce electrical load (Flex Alerts), and gives financial incentives to many consumers to shut off their power during high-demand periods.   Demand can also be reduced via rolling blackouts, if needed.  

--end update 1. --- 



--- (Agencies joint letter to Governor Brown) ------

February 1, 2016

The Honorable Edmund G. Brown Jr.
State Capitol Building, 1st Floor
Sacramento, CA 95814

Dear Governor Brown:

Shaping a Renewed Future

The California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, and the California Independent System Operator are writing regarding the Emergency Proclamation you issued on January 6,2016, relating to the gas leak from the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility. The Proclamation called on us to work together and "take all actions necessary to ensure the continued reliability of natural gas and electric supplies during the moratorium on gas injections into Aliso Canyon."

The immediate issue has been gas system reliability for core customers, which we are working to ensure reliable gas for the rest of winter given the field's current 15 billion cubic feet of working gas. Our shared concern is electric system reliability for this summer, and both gas and electric system reliability for next winter and beyond in the event injections cannot resume.

The nexus between the gas and power systems in the Los Angeles Basin is a complex
problem to assess given the constraints on gas deliveries, rapid changes in electricity demand that occur every day, and electric transmission constraints that limit electricity imports into the area. We have created a team to perform the studies that includes our experts and those of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and SoCalGas Company. There is good reason to be concerned that reliability of supply may be critical for electric generators in the LA Basin, especially those serving LADWP. We expect to complete the work related to summer 2016 by April when we will hold a public, joint agency workshop in Los Angeles to describe the reliability risks and present a reliability action plan for mitigating them. Of course, we will take action immediately as effective mitigation is identified. We look forward to working with the City of Los Angeles, South Coast Air Quality Management District, and other public agencies affected by this issue. 

The Honorable Edmund G. Brown Jr.
February 1, 2018
Page 2 of 3

This matter is critical to public health and safety, and has our full attention. We are bringing
the same urgency and attention to this as we did when faced with the unexpected closure of
the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station. Our organizations worked together effectively
then, and we will again.

Thank you for entrusting us with this responsibility.

Sincerely yours,

ROBERT B. WEISENMILLER                     MICHAEL PICKER
Chair                                                            President
California Energy Commission                    California Public Utilities Commission 


STEPHEN BERBERICH
President and Chief Executive Officer
California Independent System Operator 

cc: Transmitted via email
Senator Pro Tempore, Kevin de Leon, 24th Senate District
Speaker of the Assembly, Toni G. Atkins, 78th Assembly District
Speaker-Elect of the Assembly, Anthony Rendon, 83rd Assembly District
Senator Fran Pavley, 27th Senate District
Assembly Member Wilk, 38th Assembly District
Senator Ben Hueso, Chair of Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee, 40th
Senate District
Mike Gatto, Assemblymember and Chair of Utilities and Commerce Committee, 43rd
Assembly District
Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles Mayor
Hilda L. Solis, First District Los Angeles Board of Supervisors
Mark Ridley-Thomas, Second District Los Angeles Board of Supervisors
Sheila Kuehl, Third District Los Angeles Board of Supervisors
Don Knabe, Fourth District Los Angeles Board of Supervisors
Michael D. Antonovich, Fifth District Los Angeles Board of Supervisors
Gilbert Cedillo, District 1 of Los Angeles City Council
Paul Krekorian, District 2 of Los Angeles City Council
Bob Blumenfield, District 3 of Los Angeles City Council 

The Honorable Edmund G. Brown Jr.
February 1,2016
Page 3 of 3

David E. Ryu, District 4 of Los Angeles City Council
Paul Koretz, District 5 of Los Angeles City Council
Nury Martinez, District 6 of Los Angeles City Council
Felipe Fuentes, District 7 of Los Angeles City Council
Marqueece Harris-Dawson, District 8 of Los Angeles City Council
Curren D. Price, Jr., District 9 of Los Angeles City Council
Herb J. Wesson, Jr., District 10 of Los Angeles City Council
Mike Bonin, District 11 of Los Angeles City Council
Mitchel Englander, District 12 of Los Angeles City Council
Mitch O'Farrell, District 13 of Los Angeles City Council
Jose Huizar, District 14 of Los Angeles City Council
Joe Buscaino, District 15 of Los Angeles City Council
Mary Nichols, Chairman, California Air Resources Board
Marcie L. Edwards, General Manager of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power
Dennis Arreola, Chief Executive Officer, Southern California Gas Company
Pedro Pizzaro, President, Southern California Edison
Barry Wallerstein, Ph.D, Executive Officer, South Coast Air Quality Management District 

----(end letter ) ----


Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Methane From Aliso Canyon a Tiny Blip Globally

Subtitle: No Noticeable Increase In Global Methane

Much has been written on the natural gas leak that occurred in late 2015 and into the first two months of 2016 from the Aliso Canyon Storage Facility near Los Angeles, California.   SLB has articles on this.

This article puts the quantity of methane emitted into perspective.  Rather than take the hysterical approach as many writers have done and will continue to do, it is important to view the amount of methane released in context of the total annual methane emissions world-wide.  In short, it was a tiny blip on the radar.  A tiny, almost inconsequential amount.  Three units out of almost 7,000 units.  On a percentage basis, that is 0.04 percent. 

Published data on world-wide methane emissions, and their global-warming potential or CO2-equivalent (stated as CO2e), show that approximately 7,000 million metric tonnes CO2e are emitted from all sources, annually.  see link   For perspective, the Aliso Canyon

source: EPA Report 430-R-06-003

leak sent out approximately 3 million metric tonnes CO2e.  That is 3 out of 7,000.  

The world is not going to overheat overnight and we all wake up to temperatures like Death Valley, California on a hot August day.

As can be seen from the chart at right, and recognizing that 100 percent represents 7,000 million metric tonnes CO2e, the Aliso Canyon leak was 100 times smaller or less than the amount from Agriculture Manure.  

Or, to put the situation in the same light as would nuclear proponents when a nuclear plant spews radiation across the landscape and into the atmosphere, the methane was diluted by natural air currents to a level so low as to be almost undetectable (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima Dai-Ichi at 3 reactors).  The methane dissipated into the natural background.  

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyrignt © 2016 by Roger Sowell, all rights reserved

Natural Methane Seeps - Very Common

Subtitle: Aliso Canyon Leak Is Nothing New 

An article today (Los Angeles Times, known for False-Alarmism) harps on and on about the leaking methane gas from the Aliso Canyon gas storage system near Los Angeles, California.   The article complains that the methane released will create massive global warming.    What utter rubbish.   (see link to LA Times article)

The fact is that methane is seeping into the atmosphere, naturally, and from thousands of locations worldwide.  It has been seeping, or even venting, for thousands of years.   The tiny bit from Aliso Canyon will not even be a blip on the radar.  

Here is what a 2014 news release from the USGS had to say about newly-discovered natural methane seeps offshore the US Atlantic coast:  (see link)

"Natural methane leakage from the seafloor is far more widespread on the U.S. Atlantic margin than previously thought, according to a study by researchers from Mississippi State University, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other institutions.

Methane plumes identified in the water column between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and Georges Bank, Massachusetts, are emanating from at least 570 seafloor cold seeps on the outer continental shelf and the continental slope.  Taken together, these areas, which lie between the coastline and the deep ocean, constitute the continental margin.  Prior to this study, only three seep areas had been identified beyond the edge of the continental shelf, which occurs at approximately 180 meters (590 feet) water depth between Florida and Maine on the U.S. Atlantic seafloor."

Other natural methane leaks have existed (and still do) in many places around the world.  One such leak was offshore Santa Barbara, California, with such volume that bubbles were frequent at the ocean surface.  Lightning strikes sometime ignited the gas, and it appeared that the ocean was on fire.   That must have been a strange sight.  Eventually, an oil company obtained permission to cap the methane seep on the ocean floor, trap the gas and pipe it to shore for beneficial use.  

Other natural seeps occur in Indonesia, and many locations in the Middle East.    In fact, one of the several ways that oil companies collect data for decisions on where to drill is to measure methane concentration in water just above the ocean floor.  The idea is that cracks in the seabed allow methane to flow upward into the ocean.  Even if no bubbles form, the methane is dissolved in the water and can be detected.  

Also, here in Los Angeles, one can see methane vents along many streets.  These are associated with underground vaults, such as electric companies install for their equipment.   The methane is prevented from collecting in the underground vaults, and creating an explosive or toxic atmosphere.   The natural leaking of methane is widespread over a huge area of Southern California.  

More examples of natural methane leaks are the explosions a few years ago in a mall in Los Angeles in 1989 and another in 1985.    

One cannot believe the false-alarmism of the global warming crowd.   Natural gas has been seeping out of the ground, and under the sea, for millenia.    Any trip to the Brea Tar Pits in Los Angeles will display the frequent bubbles bursting on the liquid tar's surface.   Those bubbles are not air.  Those are methane.  

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California
copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell, all rights reserved

California Grid Operator Anticipates High Demand June 2016

Subtitle: Heat Wave in Late June to Test Grid due to Gas Shortage

The first heat wave of the season is upon us here in Sunny Southern California, home of Southern California Edison, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and San Diego Gas and Electric, three of the major electric utilities in the area.   The California electrical grid is operated by the Independent System Operator, ISO or CAISO as it is also known.  ISO issued a stern warning letter yesterday, June 17, which is copied below.  

The context for the concern is that California has inadequate natural gas storage presently, but also has a large percentage of natural-gas fired power plants.  There are also two nuclear reactors (2200 MWe at max), geothermal, wind, solar, hydroelectric, and imported power available from the northwest states.   On a good day in the summer, renewables combine to produce approximately 180,000 MWh or 30 percent of total demand.   Thursday, June 16, 2016 was such a day.   

The natural gas storage facility at Aliso Canyon (near Los Angeles) suffered a major leak that was stopped and repaired in the past few months. see link  However, authorities will not allow the reservoir to be filled again until assurance is provided that another leak will not occur.  The result is a heat wave in which high electric demand will occur, natural gas fired power plants need gas to run, and a shortage of natural gas exists.   Therefore, the plea went out for all consumers to conserve.   

------------ Letter from ISO begins --------------------------
"June 17, 2016


The ISO is preparing for state heat wave to ensure grid reliability; 
Flex Alert for voluntary electricity conservation likely to be issued next week

With record-setting heat expected in Southern California early next week, the California Independent System Operator (ISO) is preparing for potential stress on the electricity system and may issue a Flex Alert asking consumers to conserve energy to help prevent rotating power outages.

Electricity demand is expected to rise during the unseasonable heat wave on Monday and Tuesday, June 20 and 21, with forecasted system-wide energy use expected to exceed 46,000 megawatts. That total is slightly lower than the system peak demand last year of 47,358 megawatts. The all-time record peak of 50,270 megawatts was set in July 2006.

"We are confident we have a strong plan in place to meet the operational challenges posed by the upcoming hot temperatures," said ISO CEO and President Steve Berberich. "Conservation efforts by consumers are key to reducing stress on the system and to help avoid service disruptions."

The ISO is working with Southern California Gas Company, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, utilities, and the state's energy agencies to mitigate any potential reliability issues related to the limited operations of the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility. The coordination and planning underway is critical to averting or minimizing power outages. Click here to view the ISO's Aliso Canyon Summer Preparedness Plan.

If conditions don't ease, the ISO is prepared to issue a Flex Alert for Southern California for Monday, calling on consumers to conserve energy. Another Flex Alert calling for statewide conservation may be necessary on Tuesday, as triple-digit temperatures are expected in many areas of the state.

Flex Alerts urge consumers to turn off all unnecessary lights, use major appliances only after 9 p.m., and set air conditioners to 78 degrees or higher. Consumers taking these steps can help prevent more serious power grid emergencies, including electricity outages.

Notifications that a Flex Alert has been called will be sent via the ISO's mobile app "ISO Today," posted to www.flexalert.org, the ISO's website at www.caiso.com; on Twitter @California_ISO; and on Facebook.

Click here to find out more about Flex Alert and to sign up for email and text notifications.


When a Flex Alert is called take three simple actions:

• Set thermostat at 78° or higher and turn off, if away

• Cool with fans and draw drapes

• Turn off unnecessary lights and appliances

• Use major appliances in morning or late evening


Flex Alerts

The California ISO issues a Flex Alert when the grid is under stress to meet demand from generation or transmission outages, or from persistent hot temperatures.

Flex Alerts call for voluntary conservation before the ISO needs to start using energy reserves to maintain reliability. Conservation helps ease demand to avoid taking further steps to balance supply and demand, such as, in the extreme, local power interruptions."
-----------------  (end of ISO message) --------------

Commentary

The state has had heat waves before.  In mid-September of 2012 there were two consecutive days of 100-degrees in Los Angeles.  The same occurred in 2010, where the second day reached 110 degrees F.   In 2009, 100-degrees occurred on one day in April, four consecutive days in August, and two consecutive days in September.  In 2008, the same 100-degree heat occurred in the last day of September and first of October.  In 2007, it was the first two days of September.  

A voluntary demand reduction program exists, in which some consumers turn off their non-essential power uses in exchange for slightly reduced power prices.  Typically, government offices close during such times.   The wisdom of this strategy is dubious, as workers then go home and turn on their air conditioners.   Perhaps the thinking is that the workers will be trapped in traffic and cannot make it to their homes to turn on the air conditioners.   Instead, they sit idling for hours in vehicles that burn gasoline.  

There are, in fact, a few more coping strategies that many of us use during such heat waves and power emergencies.   First, it is useful to drape a quilt or blanket over the closed blinds at windows and glass doors.  The quilt serves as insulation to block heat flow into the house.  Second, it is useful to freeze plastic jugs of water in advance in the freezer compartment of a refrigerator, or a separate freezer.    The plastic jugs of ice are then placed in shallow pans in a room, where they serve to chill the air.   A small portable fan can be used to circulate the chilled air.  

For those that want to follow the electrical grid status, here is the link to the California ISO website.  The graph shows present demand, projected demand and past demand for a 24-hour period.  see link. 

Update 1:  6/19/2016:  Downtown Los Angeles did not reach 100 deg F today, the peak was 96 degrees at 1:47 pm local.  Not much of a heat wave compared to the past decade (see above).

Second point, yes, as some readers pointed out, counting to four is not a strength at the CAISO in writing their advisories.   Their letter (in its entirety above) states there are "three simple actions" to take when a Flex Alert is issued, then lists four things.   Three, four, what difference does it make.   The grid is stressed and consumer conservation is a big help, indeed necessary. 

Third point, a Flex Alert has been issued for Monday June 20, for Southern California.   A second Flex Alert has been issued for Tuesday for the entire state.    --   end update 1. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Renewable Energy Saves California from Grid Blackouts

Subtitle: Record-Setting Solar Power Reduces Natural Gas Demand

The peak summer heat is now ended in Southern California, indeed, a winter storm warning was issued for the central Sierra Nevada mountains.  One short and fairly mild heat wave occurred last weekend, with temperatures measured at Los Angeles (USC Campus)  reaching 104 degrees F for one day.  (see adjacent Figure 1).   The orange oval shows the period in which heat waves typically occur, this year only twice did temperatures break 100 degrees F.   The major conclusion is that zero blackouts occurred, because renewable power from solar PV, solar thermal, and wind turbines produced electricity at rates up to 10,000 MW throughout the summer. 

Figure 1  -  2016 year-to-date temperatures
at Los Angeles, California

As is well-known, officials have concern that grid instabilities or blackouts would occur this summer during heat waves, because the natural gas storage supply is much reduced due to the Aliso Canyon storage facility being out of operation.  

However, solar power and wind power need no natural gas, and provided power routinely through the summer.   Solar PV actually broke records for power production.    

The California grid has many efficient, combined-cycle gas turbine power plants with quick response capability to adjust their output when solar or wind output changes suddenly.    The state also imports some power from adjacent states, notably nuclear power from Arizona, hydroelectric from Nevada (Hoover Dam), and both wind and hydroelectric from Washington.    It is notable that long-distance transmission lines are required to ship the power into California.  It is also noteworthy that the adjacent states have surplus power to sell to California and do so profitably. 

Now that Fall and Winter are here or looming, the gas shortage continues due to Aliso Canyon's problems.   However, wind power increases in those seasons, which offsets the declining solar power production.    Next year will have even more solar power production as California installs even more PV power plants.   The state's renewable energy plan requires approximately 3,000 MW of renewables installed each year.  Almost all of that will be solar PV, since wind locations are essentially built out, and solar thermal has much worse economics. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell, all rights reserved.