Update 1 - (Winter storm frequency on East Coast, with graph from NWS - end update 1)
A few years ago, I wrote an article based on a speech I made to Southern California chemical engineers (see link), on the topic of global warming versus global cooling. In that speech, I described what serious winter storms can do, and how difficult it is in the US to cope with them. (note, that article is one of the top two most-read articles on SLB).
Today, we see a massive blizzard with heavy snowfall that impacts almost 88 million Americans (the figure varies, depending on which report one reads). Snowfall totals from the National Weather Service are shown below - and note, this is from about half-way through the snow event. (these are in inches, so metric-based or SI based readers can convert as appropriate.) (see link to a recent article from CNN)
The most snow, thus far, is 28 inches in West Virginia.
...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 1100 PM EST THU JAN 21 THROUGH 900 AM EST SAT JAN 23...
...WEST VIRGINIA... TERRA ALTA 1 N 28.0 PHILIPPI 24.0 MIDDLEWAY 1 NNE 22.0 ROWLESBURG 22.0 OMPS 21.5 ROCK CAVE 3 ENE 20.1 MCGEE 3 WNW 20.0 ROMNEY 20.0 THOMAS 17.0 WESTON 16.5 PETERSBURG 16.0 PRINCETON 15.0 ALBRIGHT 14.0 BLUEWELL 14.0 GLENVILLE 14.0 ROWLESBURG 9 ESE 14.0 COLFAX 13.5 CHEAT LAKE 4 ESE 13.0 DEER RUN 2 WSW 13.0 MASONTOWN 13.0 RENICK 13.0...MARYLAND... OAKLAND 24.0 RIDGELEY 1 NW 23.0 GAITHERSBURG 1 ENE 21.5 WESTERNPORT 21.5 MONTGOMERY VILLAGE 1 SE 20.5 GERMANTOWN 20.0 MCHENRY 2 NNE 20.0 NEW MARKET 18.0 NORBECK 1 ESE 17.6 FREDERICK 17.5 OLNEY 16.0 COLLEGE PARK 1 SW 14.0 BWI AIRPORT 12.4 BALTIMORE 2 SSE 9.9 POTOMAC 1 ENE 9.5
...PENNSYLVANIA... CHAMPION 4 SE 23.0 MARKLESBURG 23.0 DOVER 22.0 BEDFORD 20.5 DUNCANNON 20.0 FARMINGTON 19.5 FLATWOODS 19.0 CHAMPION 18.0 FISHERTOWN 18.0 ROXBURY 18.0 YORK 18.0 PHILADELPHIA INTL AIRPORT 13.0
...VIRGINIA... BLUEMONT 20.0 CENTREVILLE 1 SE 20.0 CHANTILLY 2 NNE 19.0 MASSANUTTEN 1 SE 19.0 PHILOMONT 2 W 18.8 BROKEN HILL 2 WSW 18.0 INDEPENDENCE 18.0 OAKTON 17.5 STEPHENS CITY 2 E 17.3 LEESBURG 1 ESE 17.0 VIENNA 17.0 DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 15.2 ALEXANDRIA 1 E 14.8 REAGAN NATIONAL 1 WSW 14.0 ROANOKE 11.5
...KENTUCKY... LAWSON 19.4 ARGYLE 19.0 LIBERTY 19.0 BEATTYVILLE 3 W 18.2 ULYSSES 18.0 GRADYVILLE 2 NW 17.0 SALYERSVILLE 6W 16.5 JACKSON 4 NE 16.2 NEW MARKET 3 SSE 16.0 LANCER 15.5 BOWLING GREEN 11.0
...NORTH CAROLINA... OLD FORT 5 S 16.0 FAIRVIEW 12.0 LINVILLE 12.0 SUGAR GROVE 12.0 CELO 11.0 CRUMPLER 11.0 CRUSO 5 ENE 11.0 MARSHALL 10.0 SCALY 10.0 BLOWING ROCK 4 W 9.0 WAYNESVILLE 3 NNW 9.0 BOONE 8.3 ASHEVILLE 2 W 8.0 ETOWAH 1.9 NW 8.0 VALLE CRUCIS 1 SSE 8.0
...ALABAMA... HARVEST 5 SSE 3.5 CROSSVILLE 1 NNE 2.5 HUNTSVILLE 1 NNE 2.0 MADISON 1.4 ...WASHINGTON DC... THE WHITE HOUSE 13.0 WASHINGTON 1 ENE 7.0 CHEVY CHASE VILLAGE 1 S 4.8 NATIONAL ZOO 1 WSW 4.1 THE MALL 3.5 ...DELAWARE... NEWARK 3.9 SSW 12.0 PORT PENN 11.1 NEW CASTLE COUNTY AIRPORT 9.7 FELTON 3.6 NE 9.5 DOVER AIR FORCE BASE 9.0 NEW CASTLE 8.3 WOODSIDE 7.5 LAUREL 7.4 GLASGOW 7.1 HARRINGTON 2.1 ENE 7.0 ...GEORGIA... DILLARD 3.5 NE 7.5 MACEDONIA 6.0 CLAYTON 8.5 W 4.9 RABUN GAP 1.1 WNW 3.0 CLEVELAND 2.0 HELEN 3.7 ENE 2.0 WALESKA 5 ENE 1.0 ...NEW JERSEY... HOWELL TWP 14.0 WILDWOOD CREST 12.0 BRICK TWP 11.0 MOUNT HOLLY WFO 11.0 NEPTUNE TWP 10.0 TRENTON 10.0 MORRISTOWN 9.5 DENNISVILLE 9.2 LINDENWOLD 9.2 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRP 9.0 ...NEW YORK... OSCEOLA 1 E 15.0 IRONDEQUOIT 1 ESE 9.5 HOLLIS HILLS 9.0 NORTH GREECE 9.0 IRONDEQUOIT 8.5 FORESTVILLE 2 SW 7.5 NYC/LA GUARDIA 7.2 NYC/JFK AIRPORT 7.1 ISLIP 7.0 CENTRAL PARK 6.0 ...OHIO... IRONTON 9.5 WOODSFIELD 1 NE 9.0 CLARINGTON 7.5 ATHENS 7.0 STOCKPORT 7.0 CALDWELL 1 SSE 6.5 SCIOTOVILLE 6.0 WINTERSVILLE 1 NE 2.5 CADIZ 2 WSW 2.0 NEW PHILADELPHIA 2 W 1.5 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... CHESNEE 7.0 LANDRUM 6.0 TRAVELERS REST 8.9 N 5.5 CHESNEE 3.9 SW 3.5 GREER 5 NW 3.0 TAYLORS 6.1 NNW 2.8 LYMAN 5.3 WNW 2.5 ...TENNESSEE... LAFAYETTE W 13.5 CROSS PLAINS 11.0 JAMESTOWN 11.0 WHITE HOUSE 7 ESE 10.0 GREENBRIER 1.4 N 9.5 SAMBURG 9.0 DICKSON 6 NW 8.5 DRESDEN 8.5 MOUNTAIN CITY 8.0 NASHVILLE 4 SW 7.1 CLARKSVILLE 3 NNW 7.0 LIVINGSTON 10 SE 6.5 GOODLETTSVILLE 6.0
It should be noted that several states have shut down all but essential services, power is out in many areas, many deaths have occurred, and residents are urged to stay home, "hunker down," and be prepare for several days of being self-sufficient. Snow of two feet in the level areas will make drifts via wind into several feet high. So, what does a guy in Southern California know about snow? Only what I observed from living in lake-effect snow in Ohio for a few years during the late 1970s and early 1980s. We routinely had snow of 24 inches or more. Drifts were six to ten feet.
There is a great disagreement between what the US, and many perhaps most countries, state officially about global warming, and my views expressed here on SLB about the coming global cooling. (see link to "Warmists Are Wrong - Cooling Is Coming," from May, 2012)
Here is an excerpt from the Warmists Are Wrong speech:
"Clothing: we will need a lot more warm clothing. This means synthetic fibers.
Shelter: almost all of what has been built in the last 70 years or so was during the warm climate. Much of it is not insulated to handle the type of cold that is coming. I foresee a booming insulation business. The flat roofs on buildings, not necessarily in California but in the rest of the world and in the northern part of the United States, may not be adequate. We may need to have some different type of roofs installed. The roofs must shed snow.
Medical supplies and health services: I believe we will be overwhelmed. Look at the relative death rates from hunger and cold, comparing heat to cold periods. More people get sick and more people die in the cold winters.
Transportation and industrial output: this will be huge. We do not move barges over frozen rivers. We know this. When a river is frozen for many months out of the year, how can you get your materials moved? What about trains or heavy ground transportation; will they work? Probably not. The train is going to cross the Rockies’ grades in the snow and ice? Likely not.
Industrial output: how does one move materials around? How do we get raw materials into the factories and the products out? If we have seen big trucks trying to go up even a small incline during an ice storm, well, they don't. We can not get trucks to go up or down the Grapevine incline here just north of Los Angeles when snow falls. Multiply this 1000 times across the northern tier of the United States.
Communications and infrastructure: we know what happens when ice storms or big snowstorms occur. The system fails. Why does it fail? It is due to ice on the lines or tree limbs falling on the lines. Can you imagine this on the scale something like the Little Ice Age? We’re going to need serious reconsideration of infrastructure.
Water supply: what does one do for water when everything around you is frozen? Well, you melt the ice. But, what do you do for heat? What if you need that heat just to keep the house warm?
Here's another one, population migration: it is entirely possible that some of the northern cities, talking about New York, Chicago, those type of places, where people give up and become what we call permanent snowbirds. They are moving south. The implications there are huge. It is okay if one hundred thousand people migrate every winter, but what if we have multiple millions on a permanent basis? We are not equipped to handle this.
Waste disposal: what will we be doing in the wintertime month after month after month when trucks cannot collect the garbage? Where do we take it? I don't really know. As engineers, I hope we can help solve these problems. It probably will require many disciplines and cooperation between disciplines. "
It appears that almost all of the issues mentioned in that speech are true during this blizzard, perhaps the populations migrating are not happening, yet.
And one of the photos from that article, showing a cheerful man shoveling snow at a house.
These blizzards and severe snow storms are events to carefully note, and record their frequency, intensity, and location. It should be noted that NOAA, knowing that this is an El Niño year, predicted a wetter and colder winter for the southern tier of the US, but a warmer and drier winter for the East Coast and northern states.
This blizzard is impacting the northeast, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, as well as the other states shown above. It remains to be seen how far, and how extensive, the snow and severe weather will be from this January 2016 blizzard. It is about halfway done, as of this writing (noon central time 1/23/2016).
When blizzards such as this occur more often, and are longer-lasting, perhaps the False-Alarmists will finally admit that cooling is occurring.
UPDATE 1 - 1-23-2016: A list of major winter storms - East Coast - turned up quite an
interesting result. This is from NWS, for the Albany, NY location.
Frequency by Year, and Month (January =13, February =14, March =15, etc)
The graph above of winter storm frequency shows more storms occurring after 1960, and
the spread of the storms is greater. Some severe storms are occurring as early as October
(10 on the vertical axis), and as late as April (16 on the vertical axis). A cooling world
would have more frequent winter storms, and they would occur during more months and
not merely during December, January and February. However, it seems a bit odd that zero winter storms happened from 1915 through 1950. This will bear more investigation. -- end update 1.
Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California
copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved.
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