Saturday, January 23, 2010
Los Angeles Headed for Ice Age in 150 Years
That is correct,the heading above is not a typo. Los Angeles, California, a huge city of approximately 13 million people on California's south coast, is rapidly headed for an ice age. Within the next 150 years, Los Angeles will have an average annual temperature of zero deg C (32 deg F), if the trend from the past 30 years (1980 to 2010) continues. The cooling trend is 10.9 deg C per century. The present annual average temperature is only 17 deg C, therefore it will require about one and one half century, or 150 years, to reach zero. Note that an earlier posting on SLB showed that Eureka, California, is also heading for an ice age, which is due in only 67 years. Los Angeles can observe their preparations and learn from their experience.
Extrapolating a recent temperature trend is exactly what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did and is still doing in their alarmist tactics to persuade the world's governments to reduce CO2 emissions, as the IPCC maintains that CO2 and other greenhouse gases will create horrific conditions for all mankind. What I have done above is using their tactics, to illustrate the horror (a local ice age) for one of the largest cities in America, Los Angeles, California. See below for the temperature record that supports the conclusion that Los Angeles is headed for an ice age in 150 years.
The graph of monthly average temperatures (see Figure 1 below) dates to 1894, and is taken from the Climatic Research Unit of the Hadley Research Center in England. Although their data anomalies for worldwide average temperature are somewhat suspect after the Climategate scandal, it is possible that the manipulations and falsifications occurred during the data averaging among all locations, rather than at the individual city level. In any event, the data shown below is taken as-is from the files posted by Hadley on the internet. The Los Angeles file is 722950, located in the folder labeled "72."
(click on image for larger view in new window)
As was the case with some other towns' temperature history, including Abilene, Texas, and Eureka, California, Los Angeles shows a distinct warming trend from 1910 to 1940 of 0.058 deg C per year (5.8 deg C per century), which continued from 1940 to 1970 at 0.055 deg C per year (5.5 deg C per century). The temperatures increase from 1975 until about 1982, then begin a steep decline. The overall trend from 1975 to 2009 is -0.067 deg C per year (-6.7 deg C per century). However, the temperature trend from 1982 to 2010 is —0.109 deg C per year ( a decline of 10.9 deg C per century).
The temperature decline from 1975 to 2010 is approximately twice as great as the decline for San Diego, California, and for Eureka, California, yet the inland city of Fresno, California shows no such decline.
As the IPCC and other climate alarmists state repeatedly, CO2 in the atmosphere is causing the climate to warm rapidly. Apparently, the CO2 around Los Angeles did not get the word. Perhaps there is no CO2 in Los Angeles? Well, no, that is not likely, as there are a number of huge power plants that burn natural gas, several oil refineries that convert approximately ten percent of the input oil into CO2, millions of cars and trucks burning fuel each day, and thousands of trees, shrubs, and many acres of grass in the area. The trees and other plants are irrigated with imported water because the area is semi-arid with very little precipitation. Such trees and other plants require vast amounts of CO2 to grow. In addition, 13 million people produce quite a lot of CO2 each day just by breathing.
Once again, it is clear that whatever causes the earth's climate to warm or cool, that something is not CO2. Physics does not permit arbitrary application of a physical principle such that it works in one location but not in another. Clearly, Los Angeles is cooling and cooling quite rapidly. Meanwhile, CO2 in the atmosphere continues to climb.
Los Angelenos should take heed of their recent temperature trend, and take appropriate measures to adapt to the looming ice age. One hundred and fifty years is not a long time, when one has all the attributes of one of the world's largest cities, including two major ports (at Long Beach and at Los Angeles), skyscrapers, subways, suburbs, sports stadiums and arenas, and Hollywood movie studios. Angelenos do not cope well with cold. Anything below 60 degrees F (about 16 degrees C) is cause for complaints.
NOTE: for those unfamiliar with my writings, I do not for a moment believe that Los Angeles is headed for an ice age. I know without any doubt that such temperature trends are temporary, and Los Angeles will soon bounce back into their normal temperature range. The above was written deliberately with the same alarmist tone that the IPCC uses and used in their frantic effort to stop fossil fuel use around the world. I write frequently on the topic of repealing California's global warming law known as AB 32. That law was passed with the expectation that California was heating up too much and too rapidly due to excess CO2 in the atmosphere. Apparently, Los Angeles' CO2 did not get the word on that, either.
Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California