SLB Reaches 250,000 Pageviews

Subtitle:  Blog Views Exceed 250,000 - top articles listed

A small event occurred in the past few days, when the view counter for this blog reached and surpassed 250,000 hits or pageviews (see screenshot at right).     That is not much in the internet world, but still is quite surprising to me that so many people would view what I write so many times.  

Below is a simple table with the most-viewed articles shown, with those having 1,000 or more views displayed.    These 41 articles account for just over 70,000 pageviews, or a bit less than one-third of all the pageviews.

	TITLE	VIEWS	DATE
1	Warmists are Wrong; Cooling is Coming	5,085	5/6/2012
2	Chemical Engineer Takes on Global Warming	4,961	2/9/2009
3	From Man-made Global Warmist to Skeptic, My Journey	4,810	9/11/2011
4	The Truth About Nuclear Power – Part 30 (Conclusion)	3,320	8/3/2014
5	The Truth About Nuclear Power - Part 28 (Thorium)	3,122	7/20/2014
6	The Truth About Nuclear Power - Part 13 (Subsidies)	2,654	4/26/2014
7	NPRA Sues Air Resources Board over Biofuels	1,831	2/9/2010
8	Tire Inflation Rule Causes Liability	1,586	4/2/2009
9	Radiation Illness in Japan after Fukushima Meltdowns	1,516	9/5/2016
10	California Worst Drought Ever - Myth or Fact	1,506	9/4/2016
11	Driessen on Renewable Energy as Racism	1,502	9/11/2016
12	US Accelerates Offshore Wind Power Development	1,486	9/10/2016
13	CO2 Capture That Produces Electricity	1,475	9/17/2016
14	Hinkley Point C Nuclear Plant Approved - For Now	1,462	9/15/2016
15	A Few More Reasons To Oppose Nuclear Power Plants	1,434	9/3/2016
16	Improved Solar Cell with Doubled Efficiency	1,428	9/24/2016
17	Renewable Energy Saves California from Grid Blackouts	1,410	10/1/2016
18	Aliso Canyon and Duck Curve Demand in SoCal	1,409	9/4/2016
19	Nuclear Unreliable In A Hurricane - St. Lucie Shut Down	1,390	10/9/2016
20	US Nuclear Reactors Shutdown - Operating Lifetime	1,375	9/3/2016
21	Wind Power Facts and Trends 2015	1,367	8/21/2016
22	Sun's Impact on Clouds via Cosmic Rays	1,363	10/9/2016
23	Idiotic Claims About Carbon Capture Plant - CCS	1,358	9/2/2016
24	Why California Electricity Costs More than US Average	1,340	7/2/2016
25	Free Speech and Opus 400 - A Look Back at SLB	1,340	9/3/2016
26	New Solar Power Record in California 2 Sept 2016	1,326	9/3/2016
27	California Electricity Rates - Residential - Not That High	1,319	6/30/2016
28	A Nuclear Nut Claims 90 Percent Cost Reduction	1,319	8/30/2016
29	A Perfect Correlation - US Electricity Price v Consumption	1,304	7/3/2016
30	US Still Has the Can-Do Attitude from the Apollo Program	1,279	8/24/2016
31	Another Convert to the New Electrical Grid Paradigm	1,272	8/30/2016
32	The Four By Sixteen Rule for Pipe Flow	1,247	4/27/2014
33	Skeptics Wrangle While Cooling Is Coming	1,240	8/21/2016
34	US Coal Supplies Dwindling Rapidly	1,234	8/14/2016
35	Another Record for Solar Power in California	1,212	8/7/2016
36	A Week That Was July 2016	1,180	7/30/2016
37	President Trump and the Future of American Oil	1,148	11/19/2016
38	Global Warming Laws at AIChE Meeting in Nashville	1,126	11/12/2009
39	US Long-Term Temperature Trend from NCDC	1,103	9/21/2011
40	Designing an Electrical Grid From Scratch	1,084	6/27/2016
41	High Speed Rail in California Stuck At The Station	1,017	6/30/2016

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Roger E. Sowell, Esq.

Marina del Rey, California
copyright (c) 2017 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Topics and general links:

Nuclear Power Plants.......here
Climate Change................here  and here
Fresh Water......................here
Engineering......................here  and here
Free Speech.................... here

Renewable Energy...........here 

Renewable Energy Saves California from Grid Blackouts

Subtitle: Record-Setting Solar Power Reduces Natural Gas Demand

The peak summer heat is now ended in Southern California, indeed, a winter storm warning was issued for the central Sierra Nevada mountains.  One short and fairly mild heat wave occurred last weekend, with temperatures measured at Los Angeles (USC Campus)  reaching 104 degrees F for one day.  (see adjacent Figure 1).   The orange oval shows the period in which heat waves typically occur, this year only twice did temperatures break 100 degrees F.   The major conclusion is that zero blackouts occurred, because renewable power from solar PV, solar thermal, and wind turbines produced electricity at rates up to 10,000 MW throughout the summer. 

Figure 1  -  2016 year-to-date temperatures
at Los Angeles, California

As is well-known, officials have concern that grid instabilities or blackouts would occur this summer during heat waves, because the natural gas storage supply is much reduced due to the Aliso Canyon storage facility being out of operation.  

However, solar power and wind power need no natural gas, and provided power routinely through the summer.   Solar PV actually broke records for power production.    

The California grid has many efficient, combined-cycle gas turbine power plants with quick response capability to adjust their output when solar or wind output changes suddenly.    The state also imports some power from adjacent states, notably nuclear power from Arizona, hydroelectric from Nevada (Hoover Dam), and both wind and hydroelectric from Washington.    It is notable that long-distance transmission lines are required to ship the power into California.  It is also noteworthy that the adjacent states have surplus power to sell to California and do so profitably. 

Now that Fall and Winter are here or looming, the gas shortage continues due to Aliso Canyon's problems.   However, wind power increases in those seasons, which offsets the declining solar power production.    Next year will have even more solar power production as California installs even more PV power plants.   The state's renewable energy plan requires approximately 3,000 MW of renewables installed each year.  Almost all of that will be solar PV, since wind locations are essentially built out, and solar thermal has much worse economics. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell, all rights reserved.

Aliso Canyon and Duck Curve Demand in SoCal

Subtitle:  California is very fortunate with a mild Summer thus far


An interesting article from 29 August, 2016 in the Ventura (CA) Star newspaper, on the issue of natural gas shortage and its impact on electricity production in California.  SLB has had several articles on this, links here.  

The journalist, Tom Elias, takes the position that the entire threat of blackouts was false, and states it was "a lie" and "a bunch of hooey."

The Star article is "Blackout threats exposed as power stays on"  see link 

Mr. Elias is wrong.  

I left a short comment on his article, shown below:

"Daily consumption of natural gas is not the proper metric. Peak demand for fuel to gas-fired power plants occurs on an hourly, and sometimes shorter basis. 

The important concern is the ability to rapidly ramp up the natural gas-fired plants in the late afternoon, typically between 5 and 7 pm. 

A case on point is from Saturday, September 3, 2016 when CAISO reports the total production, excluding wind and solar, increased almost 3,300 MW in the one-hour period 18:00 to 19:00 hours (6 to 7 pm).   [Update 5 Sept 2016:  yesterday, 4 Sept 2016, the duck curve ramping rate reached 3,700 MW in the same 6 to 7 pm hour.  graphics shown below. -- end update]

For those who want to understand more on this issue, search for "duck curve" and CAISO. Plenty has been written."   -- end of Sowell comment 

A bit more discussion is probably in order. 

There are at least two ways that a shortage of natural gas can occur in the region: sustained high demand for electricity such as in a heat wave that lasts for days, and a rapid increase in demand such as occurs daily when solar power production declines in the late afternoon. 

A combination of late afternoon, imported power curtailed for any reason, hydroelectric power not available (perhaps due to the ongoing drought), a high pressure system stalls over the state causing wind to decline or even stop, or an unplanned outage of high-efficiency combined-cycle gas turbine plants, will cause the hourly natural gas demand to surge. 

Thus far, September 4 of 2016, the state has had very good fortune in all those categories just mentioned.   No severe and prolonged heat waves happened.   We have a bit of water in the lakes so some hydropower is available.  

Nearby is a chart from CAISO, with my additions to illustrate the point. The green line, known as the "duck's belly and neck" is the total load less wind and solar power.  The portion circled in red shows the greatest change in that load, over a one-hour period.  To my knowledge, that 3.3 GW increase in one hour on 3 Sept 2016 is the highest to date on the CAISO grid.  

The rate of change in the late afternoon, or ramping rate, is one of the chief concerns of planners and state agencies.   As more and more solar power is added to the grid, that ramping rate will also increase.  

And for the nuclear cheerleaders, I note here that adding nuclear power to the grid will not alleviate this problem.  

So, Mr. Elias is wrong.  We do need natural gas storage, if not from Aliso Canyon then from other sources.  We have been very fortunate thus far in California.   The weather has been unusually cool and mild so far this summer.  However, September is the month that usually has the highest temperatures and we can expect at least one prolonged heat wave. 

Update 5 Sept 2016:  more recent duck curve ramping rates.   Sunday, 4 Sept 2016 shows 3,700 MW ramping rate from 18:00 to 19:00 hours.  See areas outlined in red below. -- end update

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California
copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved 

A Week That Was July 2016

What a week.  So much happening, and much of it already impacting, or will impact, topics that are of interest to me.  In no particular order, then, 

o  Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in the UK is having another look for viability by the new government under Theresa May; seems the cost to construct is a bit too high and subsidies also too high; see link

o  California survived a second heat wave, with a second FlexAlert issued, even though the natural gas shortage is still in effect - Aliso Canyon gas storage system is not yet fixed; 

o  Meanwhile, California's solar power production broke all-time records at more than 8,000 MW; a very good thing to have when the grid is struggling to send power to the people; even more solar power is under construction in California; see figure at right from CAISO website showing 8,132 MW produced on 26 July 2016;

o  Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are plunging fast and are already in the La Niña condition (the El Neutral didn't last long, as the ocean switched from hot El Niño to cool La Niña very quickly); 

o  Sunspots disappeared completely a few days ago, for approximately 7 or 8 days; this is rather early in the sunspot cycle for a week or more of spotless days to occur; see link to Spaceweather.com and refer to left column of that site. As of today, 30 July 2016, the sun has had 18 spotless days in 2016. 

o  A serious doubt for the future of manned space exploration re-surfaced this past week, with evidence and a report that lunar astronauts suffer (and some have died) from much higher incidence of cardio vascular disease; almost none of the non-flying astronauts, nor the low-earth orbit astronauts have this; the explanation is exposure to intense deep-space radiation and ionizing high-energy particles (galactic cosmic rays) by those astronauts that flew past the Earth's Van Allen Belts and went to the moon.   This has deep implications for the proposed moon-orbiting manned space station, any manned Mars missions, and especially a Mars colony.   The long-term orbiting astronauts on the International Space Station provide valuable data on some medical aspects of space life, but that is all within the protective shield of the Van Allen Belts.  see link to Nature article on deep-space radiation effects on astronauts, "Apollo Lunar Astronauts Show Higher Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Possible Deep Space Radiation Effects on the Vascular Endothelium"


o  As always, it is amusing to read the derogatory comments on other blogs, and find irrefutable evidence that the commenters are wrong; in this case, EIA published a nice map of the US' regional electrical grids that show multiple states tied together to share electricity; some idiot challenged a piece I wrote by his statement that a good utility never purchases power from outside its own geographic area.    Ronald Reagan's quote remains so true: "It's not that our ... friends don't know anything, but that so much of what they know just isn't so." see link to EIA article on US grids, and graphic nearby.   

o  In US politics, we have the unusual fact of a billionaire businessman outsider, Donald Trump, as the official Republican Party presidential nominee, and a rich, old, scandal-plagued, white female, Hillary Clinton, as the official Democrat Party presidential nominee.   Their respective views on climate change, energy policy, immigration, foreign affairs, and national security could not be more different.  

o  In the oil markets, world crude oil price is low and headed lower as the summer driving season ends; I tend to scoff at most so-called experts that tell us what crude oil price will be because they are almost without exception very wrong.  The fact is that oil production world-wide is much greater than oil demand, with recent reports showing huge inventory increases world-wide to support oil production rates.  Economic malaise and improved technology reduce oil demand, which will cause oil prices to plummet.   Just yesterday, pundits predicted prices of $30 per barrel after this summer ends.   I will be surprised if oil does not fall to $25 or even lower.  

 I hope to have time to write a full article with links to sources and explore each of these in more detail. 

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved

Designing an Electrical Grid From Scratch

Subtitle: Ranting and Raving Does Not Produce A Useful Result

Sometimes one just has to laugh at the things others complain about, and even rant and rave about.  A blog article I wrote recently produced a rant (on WUWT), about how the California electrical grid and its operation are grossly unfair and should never have been allowed to reach the condition that it is in today.   The chief complaint, it appears, is the price paid by residential customers, what is known as the rate structure.   California does have some high rates, it is true, by law there are a few tiers or levels of price depending on the season and how much power one uses.   The more use in the summer during peak

California Energy Commission - major electric transmission lines 

demand, the higher the price.   Conversely, low use in Spring during offpeak hours has a low price. 

Another loud complaint is the use of renewable generating resources on the California grid. Most of the howls of indignation appear to be directed at solar power and wind power systems.   It seems that geothermal is not on the list that causes anger.    The utter confusion, indeed ignorance, of how hydroelectric power is treated as a renewable source or not is perhaps understandable.  Basically, most systems of 30 or smaller MW count as a renewable, while most larger systems do not.  

I requested the unhappy commenters to provide their solutions to how California should proceed, what would and would not be included in their ideal grid.   Their goal, of course, is to have cheaper power.    No response as of this date, however.   It seems it is much easier to complain than it is to offer workable, sound solutions.    I should point out that I have never seen a utility reduce their rates when adding new generation assets, or for transmission or distribution assets.   In fact, where nuclear power plants are being built, the utility (in Georgia, USA) obtained a special law from the state legislature to increase customers' power bills for the several years of the nuclear plant's construction. 

Therefore, I put together a few items that one should, and in some cases must consider (laws of many types play into the electricity issue).  

California already has quite a mix of generating types, including nuclear, gas-fired, petroleum coke-fired, oil-fired, diesel engines with generators, geothermal, hydroelectric, wind, solar PV, solar thermal, biogas, and biomass.   Some storage is already provided by batteries, pumped storage hydroelectric, and a gravity rail system is under construction.  There are mandated combined heat-and-power (CHP) systems that replaced standard boilers.   In the gas-fired category, there are at least three types: steam, combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and peaker plants or simple cycle gas turbines.   However, at least a few peaker plants are also CCGT.  

Below is a list of generating technologies, with perhaps others existing that do not readily come to mind after a bit of research.    In no particular order, then, here is a list of 46 generating and 7 storage possibilities.   Note:  BL denotes Base Load design, LF denotes Load Following.   There are substantial initial cost and operating cost implications for Load Following vs Base Load designs.   Acronyms may be familiar to readers, if not I can provide a link to a resource. 

1 Nuclear BL PWR - AP-1000
2 Nuclear BL PWR - EPR
3 Nuclear BL BWR - ABWR
4 Nuclear BL SMR
5 Nuclear BL LFTR  - MSR Thorium
6 Nuclear BL HTGR
7 Nuclear BL Fusion - Tokamak
8 Nuclear BL Fusion - LIFE
9 Nuclear - LF PWR - AP-1000
10 Nuclear - LF PWR - EPR
11 Nuclear - LF BWR - ABWR
12 Nuclear - LF SMR
13 Nuclear - LF LFTR  - MSR Thorium
14 Nuclear - LF HTGR
15 Nuclear - LF Fusion - Tokamak
16 Nuclear - LF Fusion - LIFE
17 Coal Rankine - Med Pres
18 Coal Rankine - USC
19 Coal Gasified - IGCC
20 Hydroelectric Large
21 Hydroelectric Small
22 Natural Gas Rankine
23 Natural Gas CCGT
24 Natural Gas SCGT
25 Natural Gas Methane SMR - Fuel Cell
26 Geothermal Rankine
27 Wind Onshore HAWT
28 Wind Onshore VAWT
29 Wind Offshore HAWT
30 Wind Offshore VAWT
31 Solar PV - utility scale
32 Solar PV - residential demand reduction
33 Solar Thermal w/o storage
34 Solar Thermal w/storage
35 Solar Pond - Rankine
36 Biomass Burn - Rankine
37 Biomass Synthetic Methane (Park process)
38 Biogas Methane collection
39 Wave Various
40 Tide         Turbine
41 Ocean Current Turbine
42 OTEC Thermal - Rankine
43 River Current - turbine
44 Oil         Rankine
45 Diesel Engine
46 Natural Gas ICE engine - cogen and tri-gen
47 Storage Pumped Hydroelectric - onshore
48 Storage Pumped Hydroelectric - offshore - MIT spheres
49 Storage Pumped Hydroelectric - combined onshore and offshore
50 Storage Battery
51 Storage Capacitor
52 Storage Gravity - rail

53 Storage Compressed air

With those as the available cards in the proverbial deck, one must then have solid answers to a few dozen questions (or issues) about electrical grid design and operation.   Below are listed just a few of the hundreds of issues that must be resolved in an electrical grid.   I pose these to the ranters and ravers, with the full expectation that they will not ever provide any answers.   Perhaps merely reading the questions will give them pause, and a bit of respect for a grid as large and complex as the California grid.   

1. Power grid first of all must be safe
2. Power grid second, must be reliable
3. Power grid third, must sell affordable power
4. Utilities must obtain a reasonable return on investment
5. Power grid must meet all load conditions, all the time 
6. Account for variations in demand daily, weekends, seasonal
7. Account for planned and unplanned asset outages
8. Account for adverse weather, earthquakes, fire, flood, wind, tsunami
9. Account for blackouts and brownouts
10. Account for fuel supply issues including disruptions (coal, natural gas, etc)
11. Account for available space (if any) on railroads for coal imports from other states
12. Account for growth in demand, if any
13. Account for environmental impacts - wildlife, air, water, soil, radiation, noise, explosion, etc
14. Account for transmission and distribution systems
15. Account for customers' ability to pay - poor, elderly, etc
16. Account for power attributes as attracting or deterring commerce and industry
17. Pricing must also pay utilities for fuel and other operating costs
18. Account for critical services - hospitals, life-support systems at residences, etc
19. Account for cooling water, river, lake, ocean, or air-cooling, mixed-cooling
20. Account for customers' installation of solar on property, and wind; will you buy power from individuals?
21. Account for other states with offers to sell power to California, yes, no, what conditions
22. Account for large industry or commercial sites that self-generate, will you be their backup?
23. Account for large industry or commercial sites that produce excess - will you buy?
24. Account for location, siting, of generating assets, and environmental justice issues
25. Account for location and siting of transmission assets, distribution assets
26. Will you cooperate in a regional grid, or a very large regional grid?
27. For experimental technologies that need research and development - will you fund this?  How?
28. How will you determine acceptable pollution emissions to air, water, soil, and via radiation?
29. What levels of animal, bird, and fish deaths will you accept and how to justify these?
30. What level of grid reliability will you deem acceptable, and how to justify this? 99% or higher?
31. How will you ensure that grid reliability is uniform across all areas, so no group is discriminated against?
32. How will you price the power sales, by residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, or other method?
33. Will you have a flat rate, or a tiered pricing system, and why?
34. Will you encourage efficiency in use, or profligacy, or be neutral, and why?
35. How will you address energy profligacy by a rich few, and the increased generation assets that requires?
36. If nuclear is part of your assets, who pays for a nuclear disaster and related deaths? Property damage?
37. How will you bring electricity to a very small user in remote areas?  Not at all?  
38. Will you have above-ground or in-ground distribution, where and why?
39. Will you allow distributed generation, if so, at what size and where? 
40. How will you address the disparity in use vs location in California, with coastal areas
having mild summers and winters thus low usage, but inland areas
. having hot summers and cold winters thus much higher usage? 
41. For gas-fired peaker plants, if you have those, how will you regulate their use?
42. For large hydroelectric plants, if you have those, how will you decide where to put them?
43. How will you decide when to retire an asset, either generation, transmission, or distribution systems? 
44. On a daily and hourly basis, how will you choose which generating assets to run, which to order to stand by, and which to hold in reserve? 

45. How will you ensure complete compliance with all Federal Laws and regulatory agencies, including but not limited to FERC, Nuclear Regulatory Agency, PURPA, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, various national energy policy acts, and state agency regulations such as California Energy Commission, California Coastal Commission, California Public Utility Commission, California Independent System Operator, California State Water Resources Control Board, and California Air Resources Board? 

Have I any experience in any of these issues?  Absolutely, but just a bit.  My engineering experience includes economic justification and preliminary design of a CCGT plant that was installed and is still running near Houston, Texas at a large chemical plant.   I also performed a make-or-buy analysis many times, one notable example was for nuclear power to a large refinery using a small reactor.  Also, I did an economic justification with technology selection, and sizing for a large hydroelectric project overseas.  I had the nuclear power course in undergraduate school for nuclear chemistry, physics, reactor design, and remainder-of-plant design for multiple types of reactors.   I had a full guided tour of a large nuclear reactor in Perry, Ohio with a group of fellow engineers.  I was assigned to analyze completely the fiasco of the South Texas Nuclear Plant design and construction process, then report on the entire matter to my employer.  I have evaluated and made recommendations to several clients on their make-or-buy decisions for both electricity and steam in their large refineries and process plants.   As an attorney, I don't discuss my clients or my cases.  It is sufficient to say that I am quite familiar with many of the legal requirements for grid-scale electrical systems.  

With California presently in a crisis summer, with high loads on the grid and inadequate natural gas supplies due to the Aliso Canyon storage facility problems, it is not surprising that the grid is a popular subject.   Everyone seems to know what California should do.  It is easy to rant.   I wonder how many, if any, could provide answers to any of the issues above.  

Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
Marina del Rey, California

copyright (c) 2016 by Roger Sowell - all rights reserved